Update, October 28: The Bank raised its rate to 2.50%. Here is what the increase means for Calgary.
The Bank of Canada announces its next interest rate decision on Wednesday, October 28. The policy rate has sat at 2.25% since October 29, 2025, and the signals going into this one point in different directions. Here is what each outcome would mean for you if you are buying, selling or renewing in Calgary.
Where things stand right now
The policy rate is 2.25%, which puts prime at most lenders around 4.45%. Variable mortgages and lines of credit move with prime, so they react the day the Bank moves.
Fixed rates are a different story. They follow the Government of Canada 5-year bond yield, which was 3.59% on October 6, up from 2.75% a year earlier. That is why fixed rates have not fallen even though the Bank has held steady for a year.
The case for a cut: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. The case against: inflation is still running around 3%. As of October 9, interest rate futures put the odds at roughly three in four for a hold.
If the Bank holds
Nothing changes for variable rate borrowers. Fixed rates keep tracking bond yields, not the Bank. For most Calgary buyers, a hold means the numbers you were pre-approved on still work.
If the Bank cuts by 0.25%
Variable payments drop. On a $400,000 mortgage over 25 years, a quarter point is worth about $55 a month. A cut can also nudge bond yields lower, which may ease fixed rates over the following weeks, but that is not automatic.
If the Bank hikes by 0.25%
Variable payments rise by about the same $55 a month on a $400,000 mortgage. Some forecasters see a hike as more likely in December than in October.
What this means if you are renewing
If you locked a 5-year fixed in 2021, you are likely renewing at a noticeably higher rate than you have today, whatever happens on October 28. Start shopping your renewal four to six months early. Compare a switch to another lender, and run fixed against variable on your actual numbers rather than on headlines.
What this means if you are buying
Calgary's market is split. In September, apartment benchmark prices were down 8.3% year over year and row homes were down 5.5%, while detached prices held within about 1% (CREB®, September 2026). A quarter point on rates matters far less to your monthly payment than buying the right home at the right price.
Get pre-approved before the announcement, so your rate hold protects you if rates rise. If you are buying your first home, see my First-Time Home Buyer in Calgary guide.
What this means if you are selling
Buyers are rate sensitive. A cut can bring more buyers off the sidelines, but it rarely changes prices on its own. Pricing to today's competition matters more than timing the Bank.
The bottom line
Do not wait on October 28 to make a plan. Whatever the Bank does, the right move depends on your payment, your timeline and your mortgage terms.
As both a REALTOR® and a Mortgage Associate, I can run your numbers for each outcome in one conversation. Book a call or read more about the dual licence.
More from the blog: Calgary Housing Market, September 2026: Detached Holds, Condos Soften · Buying an Acreage with a Well in Alberta: What to Check Before You Firm Up · Bank of Canada Raises Rate to 2.50%: What It Means for Calgary
Pete Chapman, REALTOR® with REMAX Innovations and Mortgage Associate with Dominion Lending Centres Mortgages Are Marvellous. Rates are subject to change and qualification. This is general information, not financial advice. Sources: Bank of Canada, CREB®.
